I seriously doubt their ability to block the Strait. Houthi/Hezbollah/Hamas are decimated. If they use their own Navy for a blockade, it would take about length of an extra inning baseball game for US/Israeli,EU forces to sink every vessel they brought forward. And that doesn’t even account for China getting involved after their economics interests are MOST harmed by a blockade. Any such blockage would be short-lived and lead to the end of the Iranian regime. They’re not THAT stupid!
Iran won’t mess with blockading the strait or hijack any ships - they’d lose their navy and only have weasly ground forces left. That’s a totally defenseless position.
The question is whether Iran really tries to shut down the straights of Hormuz. There is an assumption that they will view this logically. But when you are talking about a theocracy, logic can go out the window. In 1990, the first gulf war saw the price of oil double, and then come back down. The second gulf war was already baked into prices. I'm assuming we are already seeing this conflict worked into prices, but aside from the move above, its unlikely to have a major impact.
I seriously doubt their ability to block the Strait. Houthi/Hezbollah/Hamas are decimated. If they use their own Navy for a blockade, it would take about length of an extra inning baseball game for US/Israeli,EU forces to sink every vessel they brought forward. And that doesn’t even account for China getting involved after their economics interests are MOST harmed by a blockade. Any such blockage would be short-lived and lead to the end of the Iranian regime. They’re not THAT stupid!
Agree totally
Iran won’t mess with blockading the strait or hijack any ships - they’d lose their navy and only have weasly ground forces left. That’s a totally defenseless position.
The question is whether Iran really tries to shut down the straights of Hormuz. There is an assumption that they will view this logically. But when you are talking about a theocracy, logic can go out the window. In 1990, the first gulf war saw the price of oil double, and then come back down. The second gulf war was already baked into prices. I'm assuming we are already seeing this conflict worked into prices, but aside from the move above, its unlikely to have a major impact.
If they block the straight, they get nothing but enemies.