In Part 2 of the #hottakeoveryourcommute, I break out Mark and my 8 minute conversation on the coming food crisis and we start with the Arab Spring and the below chart showing wheat prices over the last 25 years.
Russia is the world’s largest exporter of wheat, and Ukraine is the 5th largest.
As you know, I appreciate Peter Zeihan’s work on this topic and he poses these questions in his recent newsletter.
Fertilizers, fuels, feed grain and cheap wheat–we’ve seen prices across the board jump in recent weeks following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. We know what happened last time Russian wheat exports didn’t reach markets in 2008–a series of price spikes that left several vulnerable governments reeling. Across the Arab world, we saw these consequences play out as the Arab Spring.
But what happens when food inputs are not only more expensive, but impossible to find? What of the globalized agricultural market, where producers across the global are dependent on imported inputs to grow exported feed grain? Where subsidized bread is made from imported grain? And the transport systems moving everything face rising fuel costs?
As we talk about in the episode, as of March 13, here is where Russian troops have advanced to.
To stay on top of developments, I recommend this website.
#HTOYC- Mark Rossano on the upcoming food shortfall