Love it David! You articulate the reality of the situation unlike anyone out there. Keep up the good work! My prediction is your voice is about to get REAL LOUD!
I agree with a lot of the logic you are laying out here, but I can't help looking for the downside because I don't like how this is playing out. There has to be a downside to taking a sledge hammer to the world economy. You actually answered my question in the last line of your post. "maybe, just maybe ...". It's far from certain that this works out for the better so I definitely understand why most people aren't comfortable with the "smash and hope" approach.
No downsides to that? I think the U.S. has benefitted a lot over the years by being a trusted ally to a lot of nations. "If you want to go fast go alone. If you want to go far go together."
Thanks again for the insights. I think you're more on point than most of the talking heads out there. Even if I don't like the implications of what you're saying :)
Great article, should be an editorial in the WSJ! Even post-Trump election, it seems the pundits still don't understand they live a life and are surrounded by people who live lives that are vastly different than those of us in flyover country and the working class more broadly.
Interesting analysis, David. I'd say you are a genius, but honestly I just don't know enough about economics to really know how accurate your analysis is. I hope you are right.
By the way, when do you think it makes sense to get back into the S&P -- if ever?
I like 4800-5100 honestly but I don’t think it snaps back like Covid. This will be a number of months of volatility. Not investment advice but I’m nibbling a bit.
What I found interesting was the entire election cycle the tariff wasn't a tax. Yet in your example, the consumer still pays it and it goes to the government. How is that not a tax, certainly on a consumer. The question then becomes, how much of that is going to go to federal bailouts, as it did in 2018? So have we really increased revenue? Or just driven up cost to the consumer, while paying bailouts to the US companies that export their products today.
Its really not a reset. And despite today's jobs report, I still believe we are headed to a recession. Oil prices down 8%. Good for driving down gasoline prices, but how many rigs will be running at $66 oil? This is killing Trump's Drill baby drill.
Who benefits? AI and Robotics, any production moved domestically will be in fully automated factories. And defense spending. Trump's gold dome isn't going to be cheap.
But Trump thinks he can reset the economy back to 1789-1913, when we were mostly an agrarian society where most of us spent our lives on the family farm. That isn't going to happen. We are now a service based economy. And to think we can just bring back manufacturing (outside of defense) is unlikely. The question now is, will most of the world unite against us? Leaving Russia, Belarus and North Korea as our only allies? And how long for the penguins to retaliate for their tariffs down on McDonald island?
Trump said tariffs are coming and in my example, I showed how it could be tax neutral, therefore not a tax. But honestly, most people don’t understand economics so a talking point on a campaign trail really doesn’t matter. This is what he’s doing.
You are correct. But the last time we did this in 1930 It led to Republicans losing congress for 60 years.
The problem is that he's all over place. There is no way for the markets to react other than to retract and wait it out. The latest today is that the tariffs on China are to force a sale of tick tock. And given that he's already over 50%, will he really double that tariff to 110%? That's one way to put companies like Amazon out of business.
Reshoring the manufacturing of items like sneakers to US assumes there’s an under-employed workforce with skills, fitness and desire to take up basic factory work. 17% of American population is 65+. 40% of American adults are considered medically obese. The United States makes up 4.4% of the world's population, and consumes over 80% of the world's opioids. (Minn. Dept of Health).
Good luck filling minimum wage shoe factory jobs.
Meanwhile, the median age in Viet Nam is 33. And China graduates 3.6 million STEM graduates annually.
Nope - DeSantis passed a law that kids as young as 14 can work overnight shifts if they're home-schooled. Texas is changing their child labor laws to allow high school kids to work more than 30 hours a week again.
This is a link to the Florida efforts, Texas is debating in the House about allowing kids to work >30 hours a week again. I'm a farm kid - our parents definitely had us working young and long, but that's not quite the same as a third party business doing the same.
Had a paper route and worked in my Dad’s plastic company starting at age 10. Who knows how many hrs we week I worked but I learned the value of hard work and getting paid.
But who pays the $25? Do you think if my cost to get a shipment off the dock goes from $1,200 to $6,000 I’m not going to pass that on? That’s exactly what happened Trump’s first term and that’s exactly what I did.
Love it David! You articulate the reality of the situation unlike anyone out there. Keep up the good work! My prediction is your voice is about to get REAL LOUD!
I agree with a lot of the logic you are laying out here, but I can't help looking for the downside because I don't like how this is playing out. There has to be a downside to taking a sledge hammer to the world economy. You actually answered my question in the last line of your post. "maybe, just maybe ...". It's far from certain that this works out for the better so I definitely understand why most people aren't comfortable with the "smash and hope" approach.
It’s going to hurt every country that isn’t the U.S. that’s for sure.
No downsides to that? I think the U.S. has benefitted a lot over the years by being a trusted ally to a lot of nations. "If you want to go fast go alone. If you want to go far go together."
Maybe … but like the nuclear arsenal … if you don’t use it, it has no value.
https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/video/9.6711188
thoughts?
Thanks again for the insights. I think you're more on point than most of the talking heads out there. Even if I don't like the implications of what you're saying :)
Great article, should be an editorial in the WSJ! Even post-Trump election, it seems the pundits still don't understand they live a life and are surrounded by people who live lives that are vastly different than those of us in flyover country and the working class more broadly.
Looking forward to the comeback. I'm sitting ready and waiting to invest more!
Excellent Summary! Thanks.
Interesting analysis, David. I'd say you are a genius, but honestly I just don't know enough about economics to really know how accurate your analysis is. I hope you are right.
By the way, when do you think it makes sense to get back into the S&P -- if ever?
I like 4800-5100 honestly but I don’t think it snaps back like Covid. This will be a number of months of volatility. Not investment advice but I’m nibbling a bit.
Outstanding!
Huzzah!! An America my children and their children can thrive in!
Spot on!
Agreed and well stated!
What I found interesting was the entire election cycle the tariff wasn't a tax. Yet in your example, the consumer still pays it and it goes to the government. How is that not a tax, certainly on a consumer. The question then becomes, how much of that is going to go to federal bailouts, as it did in 2018? So have we really increased revenue? Or just driven up cost to the consumer, while paying bailouts to the US companies that export their products today.
Its really not a reset. And despite today's jobs report, I still believe we are headed to a recession. Oil prices down 8%. Good for driving down gasoline prices, but how many rigs will be running at $66 oil? This is killing Trump's Drill baby drill.
Who benefits? AI and Robotics, any production moved domestically will be in fully automated factories. And defense spending. Trump's gold dome isn't going to be cheap.
But Trump thinks he can reset the economy back to 1789-1913, when we were mostly an agrarian society where most of us spent our lives on the family farm. That isn't going to happen. We are now a service based economy. And to think we can just bring back manufacturing (outside of defense) is unlikely. The question now is, will most of the world unite against us? Leaving Russia, Belarus and North Korea as our only allies? And how long for the penguins to retaliate for their tariffs down on McDonald island?
Trump said tariffs are coming and in my example, I showed how it could be tax neutral, therefore not a tax. But honestly, most people don’t understand economics so a talking point on a campaign trail really doesn’t matter. This is what he’s doing.
You are correct. But the last time we did this in 1930 It led to Republicans losing congress for 60 years.
The problem is that he's all over place. There is no way for the markets to react other than to retract and wait it out. The latest today is that the tariffs on China are to force a sale of tick tock. And given that he's already over 50%, will he really double that tariff to 110%? That's one way to put companies like Amazon out of business.
Reshoring the manufacturing of items like sneakers to US assumes there’s an under-employed workforce with skills, fitness and desire to take up basic factory work. 17% of American population is 65+. 40% of American adults are considered medically obese. The United States makes up 4.4% of the world's population, and consumes over 80% of the world's opioids. (Minn. Dept of Health).
Good luck filling minimum wage shoe factory jobs.
Meanwhile, the median age in Viet Nam is 33. And China graduates 3.6 million STEM graduates annually.
Place your bets …
No worries - Texas and Florida are bringing back child labor to replace the illegals. This is progress?
Explain?
Really? That's news to me! If you mean teenagers mowing lawns and doing yardwork and cleanup for spending money, that's a good thing.
Nope - DeSantis passed a law that kids as young as 14 can work overnight shifts if they're home-schooled. Texas is changing their child labor laws to allow high school kids to work more than 30 hours a week again.
Interesting. Can you provide a link on that?
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/25/business/florida-child-labor-laws/index.html
This is a link to the Florida efforts, Texas is debating in the House about allowing kids to work >30 hours a week again. I'm a farm kid - our parents definitely had us working young and long, but that's not quite the same as a third party business doing the same.
What is the issue with youngsters learning a trade at a young age? I mowed lawns, painted houses, shoveled snow,
Had a paper route and worked in my Dad’s plastic company starting at age 10. Who knows how many hrs we week I worked but I learned the value of hard work and getting paid.
But who pays the $25? Do you think if my cost to get a shipment off the dock goes from $1,200 to $6,000 I’m not going to pass that on? That’s exactly what happened Trump’s first term and that’s exactly what I did.
Well I have these thoughts for good or ill: https://kingcambo812.substack.com/p/fear-and-loathing-in-trader-hell-435
You get the big picture. So does Trump. Thanks for educating others.