Israel hit Iran

… and oil is back to pre Liberation Day prices

Let’s not pretend.

Israel hit Iran, and everyone who needed to know already knew. The U.S. pulled embassy staff before the strike. President Trump was onstage during a speech yesterday and called out Secretary Wright about high oil prices—"I was going to call you and really start screaming at you. I don’t like that the oil prices have gone up just a little bit over the last few days. Chris, you’ll keep oil prices going down, right?"—but that wasn’t a reprimand. That was a setup. It was theater. Because hours later, missiles were flying into Iran, and Trump tweeted “Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb and we are hoping to get back to the negotiating table. We will see. There are several people in leadership that will not be coming back.” You may not like his style, but that’s Trump’s brand of diplomacy. That’s permission to Israel and a warning to Russia.

Let’s be clear, Israel doesn’t move like this without cover. Not just military cover. Political, cultural, narrative cover. And we’ve been watching it build for months. The Hamas war bought them the moral license and under Trump, the U.S. campus crackdowns—at places like Harvard—signaled full domestic alignment and a departure from the Biden administrations ambivalence. When you start arresting students, deporting activists, and clearing tents with riot gear, you’re not neutral. The U.S. is back fully aligned with Israel.

Why? As we’ve written before, Iran has been the quiet puppet master of chaos.

Funding Hamas. Arming Hezbollah. Directing the Houthis. Supporting Russia with drones. Keeping shadow barrels flowing into China to prop up their currency, energy system and keep the barrels flowing. But eventually, the bill comes due.

Despite the escalation in the region, the Saudis didn’t object to the strike. Why would they? Iran’s oil gets hit, and Saudi’s budget deficit. The Houthis—whose whole regional leverage depends on Iran’s backing—now look vulnerable and with the U.S. striking them at will within Syria, it’s the End Game. And without Iranian shadow barrels, oil jumps 10%, not because of speculation, but because the physical market just lost some of its most elastic supply. This is a win for Riyadh and a consolidation of power. They now sit at the center of global energy, global sport, and global diplomacy—and they’re did it without firing a shot.

And while all eyes were on Iran, it should be noted earlier this week, Ukraine launched a major drone strike inside Russia. Precise. Likely U.S.-enabled, foretelling a change in strategy as peace talks haven’t progressed the way Trump hoped. No way that’s coincidence.

And just to make sure no one in Russia missed the moment, China and the U.S. quietly signed a rare earth agreement, deescalating the trade war.

So here’s where we are. The Axis of Pressure—U.S., Israel, Saudi—is operational. And it’s not playing defense anymore. This wasn’t just a strike. It was a shift.

Trump gets to say he’s mad about oil, while quietly benefiting from the leverage this gives him over both OPEC and the inflation narrative. Saudi gets more indispensable as LIV players play in the U.S. Open annd Iran gets a taste of what happens when proxies overplay their hand.

Forget red lines. Forget diplomacy. This is the new game: Pressure, escalation, and plausible deniability.