The New Axis of Pressure

How Trump 2.0, Saudi Arabia, and Energy Sanctions Could Collapse Iran’s War Machine and Change the Middle East

The arc of U.S. Iran policy over the past eight years tells a story of whiplash: from Trump’s maximum pressure campaign, to Biden’s reset and relaxed enforcement, and now in Trump 2.0, a doctrine that’s more aggressive, more coordinated, and far more strategically lethal.

In Trump’s first term, the goal was clear: strangle Iran economically by zeroing out oil exports, deny it funding for Hezbollah, the Houthis, and its sprawling proxy network, and apply enough pressure that Tehran either folded or broke. The policy nearly succeeded on the economic side—by 2020, Iran’s crude exports had fallen from 2.5 million barrels per day to less than 400,000. But the pressure never turned into a new deal. Iran successfully waited Trump out. The JCPOA died, but no replacement ever emerged.

Then Biden took office. The shift was immediate and unmistakable. Formal sanctions remained on the books, but enforcement dropped off. Iran’s oil exports surged—mostly to China—generating more than $50 billion in revenue between 2022 and 2023. That cash flow fueled a resurgence of Iranian confidence across the region. The Houthis in Yemen escalated attacks in the Red Sea. Hezbollah rearmed. Iran resumed enrichment of uranium to near weapons-grade. And Hamas, with Iranian backing, launched the October 7 attacks that shattered any illusion of stability.

Now, we are seeing the reset in real time. And like much of Trump 2.0, the strategy looks more coordinated and expansive. Today, the goal isn’t just to reimpose oil sanctions. It’s to zero out Iran’s four million barrels per day of production—and incidentally, do the same to Venezuela as we have seen in policy moves and Executive Orders directed there. And both moves are directed to enforce secondary sanctions on Chinese refiners and banks with teeth, driving Iranian crude off the market completely. It pairs an economic chokehold with targeted military strikes on Iranian proxies. Maybe it got lost in the drama of SignalGate, but the March 15 U.S. airstrikes on Houthi positions marked the first major direct assault in years. Additional strikes followed over the last two weeks, including in Sanaa and Saada.

Another subtle but important signal: Saudi Arabia is now hosting Russia–Ukraine peace talks. That matters—not just because it shows Saudi’s elevated diplomatic standing, but because it suggests alignment. If the U.S. is quietly encouraging Saudi mediation with Russia, while also rearming for a pressure campaign against Iran and Venezuela, then we’re watching a new axis form—one built on shared energy interests and mutual enemies.

The underlying logic is brutal but coherent. Cut off Iran’s money. Collapse its regional influence. Dismantle the Houthis. Dismantle Hezbollah. Neutralize Tehran-directed armed groups wherever they surface. At the same time, make Saudi and the Gulf States partners again as “net zero” dies the death it deserves. And if Russia plays ball—by pulling away from Iran and accepting a Saudi-brokered off-ramp in Ukraine—they get brought back into the energy equation in Europe.

It’s not diplomacy. It’s leverage. Trump 2.0 is like Ferris Bueller: if you don’t stop and look around once in a while, you might miss it. Now, on with tariffs and a market revaluation that gets inflation-and therefore, interest rates-down to refinance ten trillion of debt in 2025.