To close the "What to Watch in 2022" series, we look at the Lord of the Rings of the issues, one issue to rule them all. That, of course, is Federal overreach as it nicely puts a bow on the other 4, namely voting rights, Roe v. Wade, inflation and the energy transition.
At the beginning of 2020, I didn't pay much attention to who the mayor of Denver (or any city) was. I didn't follow state level politics beyond energy and tax policy, and while I voted, I wouldn't have described myself as active. And then.... the lockdowns hit. Different cities and states enacted totally different policies. In Arizona, golf was deemed "essential." In Denver, we used pool noodles in the cups and Douglas county tried to close the course. Some schools were open. Others were closed. And the hodgepodge of policy variations across the country began.
Today, in New York City, there are vaccination passports to go to a restaurant, while in Nashville, I didn’t wear a mask once. California is requiring that all school age students that have reached "the age of approval", must get vaccinated and in Colorado, such a requirement is illegal until the child is 18. For some, they look to the feds to unify the difference (though I ask would they want that if Trump was still president and their answer is HELL NO!!). Even for the most ardent political watchers, it’s easy to get confused as to the difference between science and policy, and by and large, things vary tremendously, city to city and state to state.
Clearly, things like PPP and extended unemployment benefits and stimulus checks had to be done federally. Other things at first seemed logical like an eviction moratorium but that it came out of the CDC was a surprise. Surely Congress could have passed a law. In fact…. What happened to making laws in the first place. Emergency order, emergency approval, emergency use, emergency standard. Two years ago, it may have made sense as “these were unprecedented times.” Today, there are a lot of open questions as to whether 720 days is “an emergency”.
Most pressing and for sure to dominate the news cycle this week will be what the SCOTUS decides with OSHA’s vaccine or test mandate. The fifth circuit court of appeal stayed it, with what I thought was the best legal document I’ve read. The 6th court disagree, and now the Supreme Court is being asked to look at two issues. The overall mandate for large employers, and the mandate in health care workers.
The question before the court is not “should there be a mandate?” or “does the vaccine work?”, it is “is it constitutional Power that the federal government has, or does it not?” We will know soon enough but the issue of federal overreach will continue to play out over the coming months. The FAA is looking at a vaccine requirement for domestic flights and continues to mandate masks so that you are pleasantly reminded 30 times per flight to wear your mask. regarding voting rights, Chuck Schumer and the Democrats have made January 6th all about it and he indicated that if Republicans don’t work with him to federally control them, they will make changes to the filibuster rules (for fun, watch Chuck Schumer argue in 2005 that eliminating the filibuster would be doomsday for democracy… it’s rich). There is a power struggle and the feds want more.
The Constitution of the United States established the national government and fundamental laws, while guaranteeing certain rights for it’s citizens. Most of us have taken it for granted our entire lives. Sure, we knew a few catch phrases so we didn’t sound dumb, but, come on. Today as a result of circumstances, we are all far more aware of local, state and federal politics, their oversight and overreach, and the interplay that works together to guarantee the protection of life, liberty and property. The Babylon Bee put out this meme in December, and I think it appropriately captures the mood.
More than anything, 2022 will be defined by the question of “what is the role of the federal government?” It will be voted on in the midterms, reflected in variations of voting rights and the right to choose, and be ever present in the conversations around the energy transition. Sadly, the number one thing the Feds SHOULD be addressing is inflation. Imagine my surprise that it’s the only one they don’t want to touch.
#hottakeoftheday
The issue of executive branch mandates isn't a new one. Obama used them and I think Trump easily doubled in 4 years the number Obama did in 8, and Biden has been setting his own records, although many of those were issued to reverse Trump's executive orders.
The defense constitutionally generally comes back down to the interstate commerce clause where one of the federal government's primary functions is to facilitate which includes standards across state lines.
Its been interesting to see how the media on both sides plays up questions asked to try and read how the court is leaning. It reminds me of people interpreting song lyrics. We'll see how they rule at the end.