Tonight’s Address
Tonight at 9 PM eastern, President Trump addresses the nation. Presumably about Iran, though he was at the Supreme Court today on birthright citizenship, so expect that to get sprinkled in alongside the usual tangential, meandering, but — let’s be honest — wildly entertaining delivery.
Here’s the thing. I genuinely cannot handicap what he’s going to say. And that’s not a cop-out — it’s the point. We’re living in a barbell world where “boots on the ground to open the Strait” and “we’ve won, we’re going home” are equally plausible outcomes from the same speech. That’s the era we’re in.
If I had to bet? Limited military operation. Two weeks. Take something. Secure the Strait. Hand it off to NATO (maybe?). Leave. The strangest path — which, in this administration, is probably the path.
But here’s what I can say with confidence: any outcome that leaves Iran with the ability to ever shut in the Strait of Hormuz again is a nonstarter. That’s the line. Everything else is theater.
We’ll talk about it tomorrow. Enjoy the show.
A man who always has an good solid opinion is as confused as I am. Also statements may not results in outcomes.
Totally agree on the potential "field of delivery" for this speech. It could go most anywhere. And, there's no guaranty that he does what he says he'll do this evening. I'm most interested in what his treatment of NATO will be. I honestly believe there's more than an even probability that Trump withdraws (or at least makes that statement). If you're an eastern European country, that should give you serious pause. Serious.