In the game of Clue, between rooms, weapons and characters, players try to figure out who committed the crime. It was Plum in the library with the wrench (an awful way to die…). Straight forward and always good for a laugh to see the different systems players use to figure it out.
In the case of Nord Stream 1, one of the primary mechanisms to move gas into Germany and NS-2, the finished but as of yet to be allowed to be put into service 9.5€ billion pipeline, you know it was in the Baltic Sea, with an explosive device in two spots 24 hours apart on both pipelines, but the question is who did it?
Suspect 1 is Russia, or at least that’s what the western media would have you believe. NS-2 has never been in service but if online would have allowed a significant expansion of Russian gas to flow into Germany and NS-1, which has been shut down due to compressor issues since August, both have these things called valves. See, what you do is you open or close them in Russia based on your desire to flow gas….. control the valves, control the flow. Clearly, I don’t think it was Russia.
Which brings me to Suspect 2, us, the United States. If, as I have been saying for months, Europe is to survive the winter, they were going to have to remove sanctions on Russia, see some sort of truce in Ukraine and resume gas flows into Germany. Saving 20% of natural gas usage is equivalent to lowering your house temperature to 53 F and ain’t nobody gonna do that without being very angry at politicians and question the war efforts in Ukraine. However, without pipelines, removing sanctions on Russian gas becomes irrelevant and likely extends the war through the Midterms in November to be sure. And not to get all super sleuth but the other hint? Biden literally said they would do something if Russia invaded.
This game doesn’t seem that hard.
Whether or not the U.S or Russia did the deed, this is very bad news for Europe. Sure, NS-1 and NS-2 weren’t flowing but it’s not winter yet and opening a valve takes 5 minutes. TTF Natural gas prices jumped 20% yesterday, making nat gas that is already 7x more expensive than the U.S. even more-so, crippling industry and threatening Europe’s ability to get enough gas this winter.
Final point. I find it is ironic that yesterday happened to be the day the Baltic pipeline went into service, moving natural gas from Norway to Germany, but I’m sure that was just a coincidence.
Bottom line: Russia knows if it was or wasn’t them that damaged the pipelines. If it wasn’t them, expect some sort of retaliation. If it was … though I truly can’t see the logic behind Putin getting rid of his leverage over Europe as it seems equivalent to having a gun in a knife fight and handing over the gun…. That seems to suggest Russia will never again deliver gas to Europe and will grow much closer to China in the coming years.
Time will tell but it’s about to get really chilly.
DRW - great article. At this point, I could believe anything. - Who ever did it had one intention. Drive Europe into finacial ruin and failure. Was it the U.S? Not sure, and would not be surprised. But there are several groups like Schwab and the globalists that have said they have taken care of many of their objectives this year. Buckle Up. In 2023 the discussions won't be climate change - but rather survival.
Big little chess game…or is it…Game of Thrones? Either way…please keep moving the pieces for us…maybe we will get lucky…& they will fall off of the board!