Tariffs are a tax on imports. They drive up the cost of product and force a market adjustment. The problem thus far has been that the market doesn't know how to adjust because they don't know what they are adjusting to. Its why you've seen the TACO nickname.
Thus far lower oil prices are offsetting higher import costs. But is that sustainable?
On fiscal policy, no one seems to be willing to bring spending down. Just the debate on Medicaid reduction has been difficult. Let alone other programs. And any cuts are being offset by higher defense and DHS spending.
And the idea that we can grow out of it seems like quite a challenge. A majority of the tax cuts were extensions of what was passed in 2018. If you haven't invested based upon it by now, I doubt the extension of those cuts is going to make a difference.
Factor in the labor disruptions due to our immigration policy I'm not sure how we avoid a recession. And when that happens then I expect we will see lower interest rates.
Well, they believe that the tariffs aren't going to kick in Aug 1st. That Trump will back down again. DOW is down 300 today on inflation concerns. NASDAQ is up based upon Nvidia getting permission to sell to China again.
Markets are up about 2.5% since Trump took office. We had negative GDP growth for the 1st quarter. 2nd quarter is due out in two weeks. Should be a good tell if we are headed to a recession or not.
Neither party seems to be willing or able to actually *cut* federal spending, but the Democrats seem to be more resistant than the Republicans to significant spending cuts.
You mentioned the filibuster. Here's a hypothetical question for you.
Suppose the Republicans had 65 seats in the Senate and solid control of the House, along with Trump in the White House. Do you think they would then cut spending significantly, or would they still just make excuses for not cutting yet?
The focus on bonds should take attention away from the Powell rhetoric and trump disagreement with Powell. The demonstration by Japan is what we need to pay attention to and learn quickly from the impact on Japan’s currency valuation.
Couldn't agree more. Thanks!
Tariffs are a tax on imports. They drive up the cost of product and force a market adjustment. The problem thus far has been that the market doesn't know how to adjust because they don't know what they are adjusting to. Its why you've seen the TACO nickname.
Thus far lower oil prices are offsetting higher import costs. But is that sustainable?
On fiscal policy, no one seems to be willing to bring spending down. Just the debate on Medicaid reduction has been difficult. Let alone other programs. And any cuts are being offset by higher defense and DHS spending.
And the idea that we can grow out of it seems like quite a challenge. A majority of the tax cuts were extensions of what was passed in 2018. If you haven't invested based upon it by now, I doubt the extension of those cuts is going to make a difference.
Factor in the labor disruptions due to our immigration policy I'm not sure how we avoid a recession. And when that happens then I expect we will see lower interest rates.
Then why is the market at all time highs?
Well, they believe that the tariffs aren't going to kick in Aug 1st. That Trump will back down again. DOW is down 300 today on inflation concerns. NASDAQ is up based upon Nvidia getting permission to sell to China again.
Markets are up about 2.5% since Trump took office. We had negative GDP growth for the 1st quarter. 2nd quarter is due out in two weeks. Should be a good tell if we are headed to a recession or not.
Neither party seems to be willing or able to actually *cut* federal spending, but the Democrats seem to be more resistant than the Republicans to significant spending cuts.
You mentioned the filibuster. Here's a hypothetical question for you.
Suppose the Republicans had 65 seats in the Senate and solid control of the House, along with Trump in the White House. Do you think they would then cut spending significantly, or would they still just make excuses for not cutting yet?
Great question. I hope one, I think the other.
The focus on bonds should take attention away from the Powell rhetoric and trump disagreement with Powell. The demonstration by Japan is what we need to pay attention to and learn quickly from the impact on Japan’s currency valuation.