Russia has invaded Ukraine. If you read the piece by Peter Zeihan early in the week, you knew unequivocally this was coming. The fact that the market is only down 1.7% tells you on a risk adjusted basis, so too did the rest of the world. The obvious question is “now what?”
This piece by Zoe Strimpel is the best I’ve read on the subject and it forces you to think about “what is the role and increasingly isolationist America plays as the world’s policeman?”
Increasingly, the answer to the question is “absolutely none.” That’s why China will come for Taiwan soon.
And those who have read Zeihan's "Disunited Nations" about the process of unwinding globalization are ticking the boxes off his list. It's not all bad news for the US, unless American Exceptionalism is a key foundation of your belief system.