COVID will end March 1, 2022
The State of the Union will declare “We have shut down the virus!”
Executive Summary: As COVID ends, it’s important to recognize the same people saying “follow the science” for COVID are exactly the same group who shout “follow the science” for climate catastrophe. Discussion will not be tolerated, but that isn’t how science works. Hypothesis, analysis, review. And so on. Even taking that aside and simply looking empirically: the track record of “the Science” (TM) hasn’t been great. Just ask Galileo. Or more recently, your vaccinated friend who was told they would “stop the spread” 2 boosters ago.
Fun facts: Growing up, I always thought I was more like my dad. It turns out, I’m most like my mom (nature) and role modeled my father (nurture).
Additional Reading: Dr. Vinay Prasad. How to Save Science From Covid Politics
Last week, I had the chance to sit down with Chuck Yates and talk about mental health on his podcast. 2020 was a long year, and I’m not sure 2021 was any better. The implications of COVID policies will have a long lasting and far reaching impact. We can, and must learn from it, and look backs of assumptions and outcomes are truly the most effective.
For me, through the #hottakeoftheday website and substack account, I’ve preserved 3.5 years of writing so all the things I’ve ever said are out their to backtest. Today, as I recall the end of 2020 and my writing at the time, I certainly recall the vitriol of a lot of people who didn’t agree with me. I was a “grandma killer”, a “science denier” and my favorite “not a very good person.”
As I compile writing for new book, I’ve re-read all my posts and the most striking thing to me is that in hindsight, despite criticism at the time that "I was very extreme", it reads very mainstream today. Leading in that criticism was my mother (sorry Mom, you know you were!)
Flash forward a year later to the time when I finally got to see my parents in person in October after over 20 months of being separated by the Canada/US border. I won’t entirely speak for her, but let’s just say the letters she writes to the politicians in Canada … well, I am my mother’s son….
All the Doctors on LinkedIn and at parties said to me “but you aren’t a doctor… you can’t weigh in, I’m the expert…” and yet somehow I, like many others that were marginalized as fringe by the CDC and to be blunt, the left, were 12 months ahead of them. Follow the science, was the rallying cry and in hindsight, we know who did. Florida did. South Dakota did. Sweden did. But Cuomo and New York didn’t. Newsom and California didn’t. CNN didn’t. Biden and Fauci didn’t. The longer it takes for a mea culpa and some resignations, the harder it will be to rebuild trust in our public institutions.
Below is the post from November 11, 2020. If you thought I was extreme at the time and have tuned out, I'd be curious how you feel reading it 15 months later.
And so pivoting from COVID (since Biden will declare it defeated at the State of the Union), for over 6 months I've been talking about energy supply, energy poverty, energy access and the climate change narrative. It is THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT issue we face today, but not because the world is ending. Because big business and government want to spend $131 trillion to rebuild the grid and in so doing, make 30% margins to buy gigantic super yachts. I know Jeff Bezos is rich, but his yacht emits the same amount of carbon as 467 U.S do people a year, and roughly 1500 Chinese people. Do you really think he, or China, cares about the climate or really believes we are actually headed for a disaster? I don’t. Not for a second.
It’s a huge topic but the inconvenient truths must be discussed. We can do better for the environment, but we are not headed for a disaster, unless that’s destroying the economy and marginalizing poor people.
Track records matter and let’s be clear. The people who “followed the science” on COVID and cancelled people like me for pointing out the flaws in their math, are THE EXACT SAME people telling you climate change is settled and we have a climate emergency. We will see.
November 11, 2020
Maybe I'm the only one but it feels like I'm not in control of my life anymore. It's frustrating, angering and depressing. Most days I want to scream from the top of my lungs, but instead just find myself shaking my fist at the person driving alone in their car wearing a mask. Is anyone having fun? At what point do we say enough is enough?
On LinkedIn, someone decided that I violated their interpretation of a policy and they indefinitely restricted me, no appeal. It's a private platform, I'm told. They can do what they want.
Most schools are closed to in person learning. Kids stay home, learn poorly, snack too much, are too inactive, and play video games. We know with certainty that in person learning is essential for the social and educational development of our kids. We know for certain that 99.997% who get COVID and are under 19 will survive. "But the teachers!!" they say. Stop complaining.
For those schools that are in person (typically high tuition, private schools), the administration arbitrarily and inconsistently writes and applies rules with no thought from "public health authorities". For instance, some define cohorts as an entire grade, which no child hangs out with the entire group. And yet, if 1 out of 125 test positive, all students are put in quarantine. Forget that they are wearing masks all day. Forget that desks are 6' apart. Forget that it's more like going to prison then to school. But 1 kid tests positive and the whole cohort is sent home, just to be on the safe side. It will all be over soon, they say. Do it for your neighbors!
The health authorities themselves proclaim rules that are vaguely written and mushy and many of which feel like incredible overreach 7 months into this, but here we are nonetheless. These authorities do black box contact tracing and deem people into quarantine with no appeal, no reference of the data used to make the declaration and declare 14 days is the magic number for the duration of the prison sentence. I'm a math guy, so I look at the statistics. Why are we using the 99th percentile as the end date when perhaps the 90th will do? There is a 37% chance that you can transmit the virus without symptoms, and most are wearing masks most of the time.... so what does that reduce it to? 5%? 10%? Combine no symptoms with masks and the days to show symptoms, why is 7 days not more appropriate for quarantine? Don't ask these questions, David.
But what if you already had COVID?
What if you live with healthy people and no one will need to go to the hospital?
What if you stay home if symptoms develop?
What if I just want to get it and get it over with?
But no. None of that matters. No exceptions, no discussion, and no soup for you! The light at the end of the tunnel will be turned off until further notice.
We have rules for airplanes. Rules for restaurants. Curfews. Apps on phones. No Thanksgiving. No gatherings. No. No. No.
Here's a question: why has no one in "power" taken a step back and asked: what the F@&K are we trying to accomplish here? Are all the rules we've implemented any way to live? What are the real long term consequences if citizens stop caring? Have actually we accomplished anything in 7 months other than delaying the inevitable? Yay! We have a vaccine. That's truly fantastic news. But most won't have it until the end of 2021. At what if the virus morphs? What if there is COVID-20?
The country was built on choice. Choice to leave England. Choice to rebel. Choice to move West. Choice to take risk to make your life better than your parents. Choice. The essence of being American. The essence of our society. What happens when choice is removed?
David, you are absolutely correct. The biggest danger we face today is climate (policy) disaster.
This is the most fitting comedy scene of all time relating to today's COVID and climate science debate:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U3Ak-SmyHHQ